Israel’s Ultra-Orthodox Draft Dispute Fuels Political Tensions Ahead of Election

In Israel, the question of whether ultra-Orthodox Jewish men should serve in the military has become a heated political issue just days before the country’s national election on October 27, 2026. This debate is not new, but recent events have pushed it to the forefront, threatening to reshape the political landscape and test the stability of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government.

The ultra-Orthodox community, known as Haredim, traditionally avoided military service, focusing instead on full-time religious study in yeshivas. However, a 2024 Supreme Court ruling stated that without a law formally allowing exemptions, these men must be drafted like other Israeli citizens. Since then, efforts to pass legislation protecting this exemption have repeatedly stalled.

In July 2026, the Knesset narrowly approved a temporary law suspending arrests of qualifying yeshiva students—those who study Torah at least 45 hours a week in a yeshiva or 40 hours in a kollel—until November 30. This measure was meant as a stopgap, not a permanent exemption for all ultra-Orthodox men.

Despite this temporary reprieve, tensions escalated when, on October 20, the Israeli military detained at least 40 ultra-Orthodox men at Ben Gurion Airport. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stated these men were subject to mandatory service and faced prosecution for draft evasion. The mass arrests were unusual in scale and highlighted the ongoing friction between the state’s legal requirements and the community’s resistance.

Netanyahu publicly opposed the arrests, arguing that coercive enforcement could harm efforts to encourage voluntary enlistment among the ultra-Orthodox. He emphasised that those not engaged in full-time religious study should serve in the military. This stance shows Netanyahu’s difficult balancing act: he relies on ultra-Orthodox parties for political support but faces pressure from other voters demanding equality of military service.

The ultra-Orthodox political parties, particularly Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ), have made it clear they will not support or join a future government unless a law regulating the military service status of yeshiva students is passed. Shas leader Arye Deri stated this condition publicly in mid-October. This demand adds another layer of complexity to coalition negotiations after the election.

Polling ahead of the election shows no clear winner. Netanyahu’s Likud party leads by a small margin, but anti-Netanyahu parties collectively hold more seats, though forming a stable coalition remains uncertain. The ultra-Orthodox parties’ position on the draft issue could tip the balance, as neither bloc can secure a majority without their support.

The draft dispute also reflects deeper divisions in Israeli society. Many Israelis who serve in the military feel the security burden is uneven, especially since the 2023 Hamas attacks and ongoing conflicts. Meanwhile, the ultra-Orthodox population is growing rapidly and is projected to represent nearly a quarter of the country by 2050, increasing the stakes of this issue.

Inside the ultra-Orthodox community, voting behaviour has historically been tightly controlled by religious leaders and communal pressure, ensuring strong support for their parties. But some analysts note that frustration over the failure to secure a durable draft exemption law is causing cracks in this unity, possibly affecting voter turnout and party loyalty.

As Israel heads to the polls, the military draft question remains a flashpoint. The outcome of the election could determine whether Netanyahu retains power or if a new government emerges willing to challenge the status quo. Either way, how Israel handles the ultra-Orthodox draft issue will shape the country’s future social and political fabric.