Team to beat? Sleeper pick? MLB insiders predict playoff favorites, toughest contenders
Team to beat? Sleeper pick? MLB insiders predict playoff favorites, toughest contenders. Houston Astros: 7 votes(Chicago White Sox, 3; Toronto Blue Jays, 1)Though there was a consensus on the Astros, several of our voters gave off a vibe of "if you force me to pick a team" when it came to a sleeper in the AL.
What happened
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With that in mind, we asked a panel of 16 executives and scouts around baseball: Who are the teams to beat in each league heading into October? In last year's poll, the consensus October sleeper pick was the Seattle Mariners, who fell one game short of making it to the World Series. They didn't show up in our poll this time around — for good reason, as they likely won't make the postseason — and while there was no consensus overall sleeper team that could go all the way this year, there was agreement on an underdog in each league.
The wider picture
San Diego Padres: 7 votes(Cubs, 4; Atlanta Braves, 2; Arizona Diamondbacks, 1) Not unlike the theory behind why our panel of voters chose the Brewers as the team to beat, the Padres' pitching staff seems like it could be the reason they make a run. Of course, they have to make the postseason first, but that's the whole point of picking them as a sleeper: No one knows for sure that they'll get in, but watch out if they do.
It's enough to create a consensus for our NL sleeper team. AL scout: "For me, San Diego is the perfect sleeper team. New York Yankees: 9 votes(Tampa Bay Rays, 4; Boston Red Sox, 3)With the Yankees getting healthier — meaning Aaron Judge returning from an injury absence of more than three months — there simply wasn't much variety in voting in the AL: New York is clearly the team to beat. That would leave the Rays or Red Sox as the team to beat.
And yes, one voter picked the Blue Jays, who aren't even in a playoff position right now. If someone other than New York, Tampa or Boston comes out of the AL, that team would truly qualify as a sleeper.
What has been reported
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Follow on XMultiple AuthorsEmailPrintOpen Extended ReactionsAs the 2026 MLB regular season winds down and reaches its conclusion, it's anyone's guess as to which teams will emerge as participants in this year's World Series. Each league has its own version of parity, though the National League clearly possesses a better group of teams this season than the American League. Of course, that won't matter in the playoffs until the leagues face off in the Fall Classic. No one affiliated with a contending team was part of our poll to keep things as unbiased as possible.
What happens next
It didn't work out for them in the 2025 playoffs, but experts weren't deterred by their defeat to the Dodgers in the National League Championship Series. The Brewers are even better on the mound than a year ago, according to the insiders we spoke to. While their team ERA is about the same as it was last season, the top end of their staff, as well as the bullpen, is as good as anyone's in the game.
But it's Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson that give me more confidence this time around than last year when I picked them. They're one team that doesn't HAVE to have the bye because of those pitchers. "Los Angeles DodgersNL executive: "I'm not picking against the Dodgers. Since the trade deadline, when San Diego picked up Casey Mize and Robbie Ray, the pitching staff has compiled the best ERA in the NL.
The report has been compiled by The Daily Waves using information reported across espn.com. Details are presented according to the information available at the time of publication and may change as authorities, organisers or other relevant parties provide updates.